Exploring the yield curve with d3.js

Here are a few animated visualizations that explore the yield curve, inspired by James Mackintosh’s piece. Conventional wisdom holds that if the yield curve inverts–that is, when short-term yields are higher than long-term yields–a recession may be on its way. But which yield curve to watch?

Watch the five-year/two-year curve invert in Dec. 2018.

The ten-year/two-year curve, the one that markets more traditionally watch, did not invert. Nor did the ten-year/three-month curve, which academics typically watch.

Here’s a full yield curve, including the yields on bonds with vintages between three months and ten years. Here’s the full yield curve for the period 1990 to 2018.